Drawing conclusions three weeks into the season is comparable to declaring a president based on the first two exit polls. Are home runs and slugging down? Yes. Due to steroid testing? Let's wait.
The more salient topic of conversation thus far has been the inconsistent fastball. Oh, when Randy Johnson is 90-93 mph in his first four starts, no one panics. It is his first April in cold weather and the Unit is expected to get back up over 95 mph. Mike Mussina has been in the 86-88 mph funk in April the last couple of years, and no one seems overly concerned that Jason Schmidt was down in the low 90s. Check back in June.
There are starters who are up as well. Last season, Pedro Martinez's norm was to throw 88-89 in the first inning or two then build up to 92. But since the first inning of his first start in Cincinnati, when Adam Dunn hit a three-run homer, Martinez has sat at 95 mph with his best and most consistent stuff since 1999 when he should have been the MVP. Kevin Millwood and Jamey Wright have been touching 95 for the first time in years.
"There were a lot of weather issues at the end of spring training in Florida, and it set a lot of pitchers back farther than they realized," one advance scout said. "They can throw all the minor league and simulated games they want, it's not the same as facing major league hitters."
However, relievers are another matter. "Middle relief is a problem all across baseball," one NL general manager said Wednesday. "I don't know if it's related to the testing or what, but we're not getting the mid-90s guys in the sixth and seventh innings that we used to."
The save percentages have drifted from 52 percent to 60 percent (the latter as of April 22) in the opening weeks, down from 68-70 percent last season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked similar questions and got essentially the same answers – that an odd finish to spring training, the restrictions on "supplements," the wear on relievers and historic inconsistencies related to the position have all accounted for the early woes.
The Diamondbacks and Rockies believe they have found closers in Brandon Lyon and Chin-hui Tsao, respectively, but their middle men have blown five and six save opportunities, respectively. Texas has blown five. Oakland (two saves, three blown), Detroit (zero saves, four blown), Florida (zero saves, one blown), Milwaukee (one save, two blown) and the Mets (one save, three blown) have more blown saves than saves. Armando Benitez has been in the low 90s, likely from a lack of early work. Mariano Rivera has gone through similar stages. Keith Foulke, as well.
The Yankees are not worried about Rivera, even after his pitching for seven months 10 straight seasons. But they are worried about getting to Rivera, as Tom Gordon isn't throwing the way he did until mid-September last year. As Tanyon Sturtze rode in off the claim wire in 2004, the Yankees have brought in Buddy Groom and before the season is over they might try Chien-Ming Wang, who had a very impressive spring training. Scott Proctor is also in the equation.
"Relievers are so inconsistent from year to year that it's unfair to throw the 'supplements' thing at every guy who is down in velocity," an AL GM said. "One year a guy is throwing 94-95, the next 89-91. It happens throughout the industry. What happens is that most teams open the season with their bullpens aligned based on the previous year's results. It usually takes a couple of months to realign it."
It's already happening in Arizona, for instance, where Greg Aquino, Jose Valverde and Oscar Villarreal could not hack the innings leading up to Lyon. Brian Bruney is now beginning to take hold of the eighth inning, and Mike Koplove of the seventh. The Mets, Washington, Florida, Houston and several other teams will tinker for the first two months to try to uncover the next Brendan Donnelly, or for that matter, Lyon.
One problem that contenders will have is that Bud Selig's revenue sharing has succeeded, which means that where four years ago there were 15-18 teams that knew they were into next year in late July, this season it's possible that the only teams that may have run up the 2006 white flags on July 31 are the Rockies, Brewers, Pirates, Devil Rays, Royals and perhaps a couple of other surprise teams. "There aren't going to be many legitimate relievers available," one GM said, "and the price is going to be ridiculously high. You may be able to get Octavio Dotel from Oakland, but Billy Beane is going to want to extract a high price. Tampa Bay is going to want another Scott Kazmir for Danys Baez. Jose Mesa the same."
Some of the bullpen situations will be solved, some will not. "When it gets to October," a GM said, "you'd better have your bullpen solved, because you're not going to win without it."